All Entries Tagged With: "Inflation"

Option Trading a Skill to Be Mastered – How to Lower the Limited Risk Further

In the current situation, inflation exists in the economy, this apparent problem actually provides interesting option trading opportunities. this strategy aims at eliminating the frequency for timing the market, thus minimize traders’ exposure to potential losses. A trader who is sensitive enough to avoid high risk is concerned with their chances to suffer loss.

A few Call Options gives the trader the right to purchase, but the existence of limited risk still indicate his great exposure to potential loss. once the price does not get up to the expectation, traders would lose all of the money that they put up to buy the options. In this situation traders would choose Option Selling, in that he or she is obliged to abide by contract. In currency exchange the idea is the same, but here metal trading is used as an example if a person sells a $1000 Gold Call in November and receive money, he or she actually agreed to deliver to the Option buyer $1000 Gold between now and till November. if you are the seller for this option, your maximum profit is the premium, but the risk is unlimited. if Gold can be traded at $1100 an ounce in November, you have not changed your decision, you have the obligation to make delivery of the metal to the Option buyer at the initial amount of $1000 an ounce. if this happens you suffer a loss of $100 per ounce on every selling contract. When each Gold contract has 100 ounces, the loss is huge.

There is one thing you can do: spread it off! be in the option and also against option. if a trader bought in February a $400 call Option of Gold for a premium of $6.00 an ounce. Since each Gold contract accounts for 100 ounces, this trader needs to pay $600 per option. the risk is restricted to $600. furthermore, if this trader now sold the November $1000 Gold Call Option, it has an earlier expiration date, and collected a premium of lower amount of money, then the initial risk is minimized to the difference between the premium of $600 being paid and the lesser amount of money he collected.

What this method has said, traders opined that Gold will move after November but before February. once this expected disruption occur, within the time frame stated, a trader is heading for the right direction. this strategy is also extremely useful in the trades of historical lows. In addition, the closer a trader gets to an option expiration, the more information he or she can gather regarding the effectiveness of the method. the rule of thumb is players should play the game without exposing himself to too many downsides. this is very true to any types of high leverage transaction.

Option Trading a Skill to Be Mastered – How to Lower the Limited Risk Further

China’s Inflation Worries Build

Is China’s market still rallying or is it coming to a halt? Does anyone really want to be against China and miss out on the gains. I have been part of the rally taking gains from YGE and PTR yet can we continue to expect it to rise at such a rate?  If you are invested in Chinese Stock consider taking profits especially from YGE which I believe to have peaked at $16 and this is why. In 2009, the Chinese Stock Market is up 85% as a result of help from the banks loose lending and favorable foreign speculators. This has given the economy an enormous amount of cash and skyrocketed stocks over economic reality. Can it continue to support this? We have seen recent attempts by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other government regulators to coo down the trading by tightening regulation yet do they want to disrupt China’s economic recovery? Any moves right now won’t stop China, as the Bulls will run wild. However come fourth quarter could the Chinese government have to shift its monetary policy to stop rising inflation? If so that could send a downfall in their economy and crash the markets. Many say any form of regulation such as raising requirements or interest rates is unlikely to happen because they fear it could hurt the recovery however what if inflation becomes a raging problem? How do they react? We will know when any form of monetary policy change is coming as in past experience usually the stock market reacts before the policy even has been enforced. Analysts expect that if the government were to step in, it could sent the Shanghai Composite Index down as much as 20%. It’s tough how to read this situation. Some are celebrating the recovery and the 8% growth rate. Others think quite the opposite as unregulated credit expansion contains the seeds of future financial problems. Should this pace of credit expansion continue for the rest of the year, China may be faced with a difficult road ahead. The economy won’t be the problem, as most of the debt is owed to investors and debtors. On the contrary, if inflation were to spike next year, the central government would have to choose between shutting off the credit line, which will cause and showcase a massive nonperforming loan problem or they could have an enormous inflation problem. China is in need for a leader, someone to step up and handle this growing problem. To me the danger of this situation is China could potentially create another stock bubble similar to 2006 and 2007. However during those times China’s growth in its economy was peaking and corporate earnings were at an all-time high. This time round the economy is just getting the wheels churning again and they expect another downturn and overall loss in corporate earnings for 2009 so it could be a whole lot worse. Personally I still think China has some Bulls left in it and if a leader steps up this situation could be all handled without a downfall in the markets. Though it is still something to watch out for so you don’t become a causality in the downfall.