Jobs Report Shows Encouragement or Did Analysts Alter the Data to Fit a Model to Help a Struggling President in a Campaign Year?
Most recent jobs report shows signs of encouragement for our economy going forward. Is this true? Is our economy actually improving? While this is a good start we still have a long ways to go.
In addition, what many people don’t know is how the information can be dramatically altered to conform to fit the model in which they choose, Bloomberg explains this in “Beware Analysts Torturing Jobs Data to Fit Model.” An exert from the article helps further explain what we mean:
“How much of the job creation is real? How much of it is the result of the unseasonably warm winter weather, which boosts seasonally adjusted employment in industries such as construction, mining and real estate? (Remember, what the seasonal adjustment factors add in one month, they take away in others.) What about the birth-death model, which uses sample- based estimates to capture new business formation and the creative destruction of others?”
Going along with the results from the jobs report we thank Barry Riholtz’s blog “The Big Picture” for sharing with us a cool little widget from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:
“The Jobs Calculator calculates the net employment change needed to achieve a target unemployment rate after a specified number of months. The user can adjust the target unemployment rate, the number of months, and the assumed labor force growth.”
Fun little tool, recommend you all give it a try. Just click on the LINK HERE to give it a shot!
What’s your opinion on the most recent jobs report? Do you think the economy is actually on the up or is this really just an economists move to make it seem like we are actually improving to in fact help out a struggling President in an election year? The incumbent is usually never defeated however with very few achievements and a weak record to run on Obama needs all the help he can get and an improving economy and creation of more jobs would be a huge asset to his campaign.
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