Christmas Coming Early: I Expect Retailer Numbers to be Better than Expected
James | Nov 18, 2009 | Comments 9
Christmas is coming early guys and from what we have seen retail numbers look like they will be better than expected. Yes after yesterday’s news of the
Advance Retail Sales beating expectations by 0.5% everyone is optimistic about the industry. I have been a strong promoter in the American consumer for some time and glad to see that it is finally coming true. With black Friday coming up on us along with the holiday shopping season I think we are going to start to see a resurgence in retail stocks. So where to look at? Well I am a strong promoter of the video-game industry and only see sales numbers increasing with the release of high profile games such as Call of Duty along with the price cuts on many next generation systems. GameStop (GME) is the best of breed video-game retailer and a very well run company making it a strong fundamental investment with long-term potential. Read last week’s article on GameStop’s future strength. I also think Best Buy (BBY) is a strong bet in the electronics market due to their improved inventory setup. Moving on I like accessory maker Coach (COH) who is I recently upgraded this month due to their strong cost cutting abilities and better than expected sales estimates. The next bull market would have to be the clothing brands. I see Chicos (CHS), Buckle (BKE) both having better than expected numbers along with GAP (GPS) who many expect to have an outstanding holiday season due strong market campaigns and cost cutting abilities. Lastly I think we can never lose faith in Warren Buffet’s ability to see value in stocks. This week he upped his investment within Wal-Mart (WMT) plus the company was backed by strong comments from CEO Michael Duke saying that they are encouraged by increased traffic and market share gains. Overall I am optimistic about the holiday shopping season and think retail numbers will be better than expected. As a result I think it wouldn’t be a bad choice to dabble in some retail stocks. Stay tuned for more in-depth reports on individual picks.
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Jus why would the American consumer want to buy when all most all is foreign made.
Yes, Buffett bought more of tat store with the star in the name….but he also bought a train.
2006, Mexico, China, Wal*Mart and tat container company made a deal on a port to bring all tat so-call cheap stuff from China but with the turnips in D. C. raising so much cane over having Mexican trucks run on US streets tats the need for tat train.
And don’t leave out those 15 cargo ships tat emit as much pollution as 760 MILLION AUTOMOBILES…or the turnips in D. C. trying to cram a Carbon Tax Bill down the American taxpayers throat.
Even tat $9 BILLION in hidden taxes to all Americans to clean the fish from the ballast tanks of ships….
Now…
the FACTS:
RETAIL MAKES NOTHING
YOUR GOVERNMENT ONLY MAKES MORE DEBT
Wal*Mart’s Global Procurement Offices are in China
95% of the items in a Wal*Mart store in China are made in China
5% of the products in a Wal*Mart store in China are foreign
Sam Walton didn’t put tat star in the name
Cheap ain’t chic and Sam had his bird dog…Ol’roy stuffed
oh! read “The Flow of Trade in a Global Economy” by Lance Winslow. There is one quote from his article tat comes in mind. “Now let us look at Wal-Mart again; you buy a product there, 6% goes to the employees, 10-18% is profit to the company, 25% goes to other costs and 50% goes to re-stock or the cost of goods sold. Of the 50% about 20-25% goes to China, a guess, but you get the point. Now then, how long will it take at 433 Billion dollars at year for China to have all of our money, leaving no money flow for us to circulate? At a 17 Trillion dollar economy less than 40-years minus the 1/6 they buy from us. Some say that if we keep putting money into our economy, it would take forever, but if we do not then eventually all the money flow will go. If China buys our debt then eventually they own us, no need to worry about a war, they are buying America, due in part to our own mismanaged trade, so whose fault is that? Not necessarily China, as they are doing what’s in the best interests, and we should make sure that trade is not only free, but fair too.”
And the next time you buy….think of George Washington and what he wrote in his farewell address of 1796….
gudday and God Bless!
duh! Being an old person myself and knowing how it wus back in the 40’s, 50’s and 60’s in tis union of 50 states….I look at George each time I pull him out of my billfold and make a promise to send him out for items made in America so after floating around helping each hand he touches jus maybe one day he will shake mine again.
Times are changing though and you just have to face the facts that business is more effective now a days with outsourcing and what not. For better or worse you have to accept change when it comes.
Yes, China owns a portion of the US, we are also their biggest importer of their goods. As such they will continue to purchase T-bills and keep their currency depressed to sustain the constant exports. China mass produces items and if their currency turned against the dollar it would inflate their exports and they would drastically drop on the competetive scale. Furher out multinationals are everywhere in China therefore the deficit number is inflated its not as bad as people think. When sony sells a computer in the US for $1000 this is seen as a deficit to the US, in actuallity the majority of the components in that computer are US companys such as intel (a US company) that makes the largest profits.
Folks will truly make this a Happy Christmas Holiday season.This will reflect in the retail and may I include food sales as well.
As for retail numbers ?
Let’s say they will be higher than the tree top ornament!
Good point I think the whole spectrum will be strong leading us into 2010 with high hopes.
I will agree, retail numbers will be better than expected. Consumers will make this holiday season count.
Yes Black Friday should be a great start as well.
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What are your expectations for Holiday Retail numbers?